A number of recent studies have found evidence of a nonlinear term structure relationship in the U.S. This paper extends earlier work and develops tests of the null hypothesis of no cointegration that allow for linear or asymmetric (or symmetric) threshold cointegration under the alternative...

We investigate the order of integration of aggregate wage, price and productivity measures for the USA. Our investigation differs from previous studies as we employ recently developed tests that allow, under the alternative hypothesis, for structural change between periods in which the data are...

Previous empirical work employing smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models has found that U.S. dollar real exchange rates are nonlinear mean reverting processes. We utilise tests developed from time-varying smooth transition autoregressive (TV-STAR) models to re-examine dollar-based rates....

Conventional Dickey-Fuller unit root tests have been generalized to allow for nonlinearity under the alternative hypothesis by Enders and Granger [Journal of Business Economics and Statistics, 16 (1998) 304] (EG) and Leybourne, Newbold and Vougas [Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19 (1998) 83]...

Purpose – A misplaced reliance on value at risk (VaR) has been focused on in the media as one of the main reasons for the current financial crisis, and the recently published Turner Review by the UK Financial Services Authority concurs. The purpose of this paper is to present an introductory...

Recently developed methodology to allow the possibility of a stochastic unit root process as an alternative to a fixed parameter unit root model is applied to six national indices of stock market prices. Evidence supporting the stochastic unit root hypothesis is found. However, the...

New tests, based on smooth transition autoregressive models, for mean reversion in time series of real exchange rates are proposed. One test forces mean reversion to be symmetric about the integrated process central case, while the other permits asymmetry. The tests are applied to monthly series...

This study investigates changes in the persistence of the S&P Composite dividend-price ratio. Recently developed tests are employed that allow for breaks between periods in which the data are integrated of order zero, I(0), and integrated of order one, I(1). One of the tests finds a break from...