In the context of modern portfolio theory, we compare the out-of-sample performance of eight investment strategies which are based on statistical methods with the out-of-sample performance of a family of trivial strategies. A wide range of approaches is considered in this work, including the...

We develop a general approach to portfolio optimization taking account of estimation risk and stylized facts of empirical finance. This is done within a Bayesian framework. The approximation of the posterior distribution of the unknown model parameters is based on a parallel tempering algorithm....

We study copulas generated by elliptical distributions. We show that their tail dependence can be simply computed with default routines on Student's t-distribution given Kendall's [tau] and the tail index. The copula family generated by the sub-Gaussian [alpha]-stable distribution is unable to...

Two shrinkage estimators for the global minimum variance portfolio that dominate the traditional estimator with respect to the out-of-sample variance of the portfolio return are derived. The presented results hold for any number of observations n = d 2 and number of assets d = 4. The...

Market efficiency at least requires the absence of weak arbitrage opportunities, but this is not sufficient to establish a situation where the market is sensitive, i.e., where it "fully reflects" or "rapidly adjusts to" some information flow including the evolution of asset prices. By contrast,...

In this paper, we derive two shrinkage estimators for minimum-variance portfolios that dominate the traditional estimator with respect to the out-of-sample variance of the portfolio return. The presented results hold for any number of assets and number of observations . The small-sample...

We develop a general approach to portfolio optimization taking account of estimation risk and stylized facts of empirical finance. This is done within a Bayesian framework. The approximation of the posterior distribution of the unknown model parameters is based on a parallel tempering algorithm....

It has been frequently observed in the literature that many multivariate statistical methods require the covariance or dispersion matrix [Sigma] of an elliptical distribution only up to some scaling constant. If the topic of interest is not the scale but only the shape of the elliptical...

In this paper, we derive two shrinkage estimators for minimum-variance portfolios that dominate the traditional estimator with respect to the out-of-sample variance of the portfolio return. The presented results hold for any number of assets and number of observations . The small-sample...