This paper deals with an alternative approach to treating seasonality in error correction models for consumption with a parsimonious parameterization as proposed by Harvey and Scott. We introduce an unobserved seasonal component into an error correction model for Austrian consumer expenditures...

Business in the European Union is visibly picking up, carried along by the demand for exports, whereas domestic demand (including from private households) remains muted. Disposable income is growing at a sluggish rate only and the propensity to save continues to be high. As a stabilising factor...

The article tests a procedure for spotting and eliminating statistical outliers in economic time series which does not require previous information on the location of outliers and which estimates model parameters and outliers simultaneously. Results for three different time series suggest that...

Economic time series are submitted to seasonal adjustment procedures in order to facilitate the analysis of the data. Originally, deterministic approaches were adopted for the non-observable components like trend, seasonal factors, etc. Later on, they were replaced by the calculation of moving...

This paper presents the results of the second stage in building a model for sectoral forecasts, an input-output model (I-O Model) that is fully compatible with the WIFO Macro Model. The first stage was completed one year ago, and the following changes were then implemented: the data base of the...

Vigorous growth of the distribution sector in the past has strengthened its position within the Austrian economy. Lively consumer demand and rising receipts from tourism have boosted retail sales in the first half of 1992 (+3.2 percent in volume, year-on-year). In July and August, however, sales...

From 1964 to about 1988 the saving rate fluctuated more or less regularly around a constant mean. Since then, however, a rising trend has been observed. One factor was the tax reform of 1989 which resulted in – to some extend only transient – income gains, a large proportion of which tend to...

In past recessions, Austrian consumer have tended to maintain their level of consumption; therefore, in contrast to other countries precautionary saving has not been an important factor in the aggregate. This conclusion seems also to apply to the first half of 1993. The decline in the propensity...