This paper addresses questions about the structure of the economy and financial markets raised by recent research on the term structure. The work of Duffee (2012) and Joslin, Preibsch and Singleton (2012) suggests that macroeconomic variables affect risk premia rather than bond yields, which are...

Any security’s expected return can be decomposed into its “carry” and its expected price appreciation, where carry is a model-free characteristic that can be observed in advance. While carry has been studied almost exclusively for currencies, we find that carry predicts returns both in the...

Why are spreads on corporate bonds so wide relative to expected losses from default? The spread on Baa-rated bonds, for example, has been about four times the expected loss. We suggest that the most commonly cited explanations – taxes, liquidity and systematic diffusive risk – are...

We present a new framework for the joint estimation of the default-free government term structure and corporate credit spread curves. By using a data set of liquid, German mark denominated bonds, we show that this yields more realistic spreads than traditionally obtained spread curves that...

We present a new framework for the joint estimation of the default-free government term structure and corporate credit spread curves. By using a data set of liquid, German mark denominated bonds, we show that this yields more realistic spreads than traditionally obtained spread curves that...

Nous avons étudié quelles annonces économiques font significativement réagir le marché des obligations privées aux Etats-Unis. Nous avons mesuré l’impact sur 1 jour d’une trentaine d’annonces macroéconomiques sur les spreads de crédit, en affinant notre analyse grâce à une...

The standard measures of distress risk ignore the fact that firm defaults are correlated and that some defaults are more likely to occur in bad times. We use risk premium computed from corporate credit spreads to measure a firm’s exposure to systematic variation in default risk. Unlike...

This paper develops an affine model of the term structure of interest rates in which bond yields are driven by observable and unobservable macroeconomic factors. It imposes restrictions to identify the effects of monetary policy and other structural disturbances on output, inflation, and...

The paper uses a reduced-form vector autoregressive framework to study the effects of quantitative easing and operation “twist”, as well as a conventional monetary expansion, on corporate bond yields and spreads. We construct rating- and maturity-based weekly bond portfolios using TRACE and...

This paper shows that the standard and deferred filtration structural models of corporate default are isomorphic, allowing the insights of the standard full information setting to be carried over to the more complex case of asymmetric information. It shows that the accounting lag, which provides...