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A practice that has become widespread is that of comparing forecasts of financial return variability obtained from discrete time models against high frequency estimates based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial return variability modelling this raises several methodological and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083354
practical implications, our forecasting results provide perhaps the most convincing evidence to date that the exchange rate …,b) literature on forecasting exchange rates, we find that the reverse forecasting regression does not survive out-of-sample testing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008549016
This paper studies the dynamic relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and world commodity price movements. Taking into account parameter instability, we demonstrate surprisingly robust evidence that exchange rates predict world commodity price movements, both in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005787382
forecasting models reduces forecast errors compared with a single model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010903380
forecasting models reduces forecast errors compared with a single model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010666012
Traditionally, the literature on forecasting exchange rates with many potential predictors have primarily only … forecasting horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010640711
financial variables. The aim of this work is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of some … counterparts. Although we find evidence of some forecasting gains from nonlinear models, the results are sensitive to the forecast … horizon and to the metric adopted to measure the forecasting accuracy. The use of data at different frequencies allows us to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010660752
-- sequential adaptive ridge regression -- that prevent overfitting in-sample for better and more stable forecasting performance out … information about exchange rates even for short forecasting horizons -- and the Meese and Rogoff (1983) puzzle is overturned. Such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011147708
We show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency between changes in the price of a country's major commodity export price and changes in its nominal exchange rate. The relationship appears to be robust and to hold when we use contemporaneous (realized) commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011118618
We show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency between changes in the price of a country's major commodity export price and changes in its nominal exchange rate. The relationship appears to be robust and to hold when we use contemporaneous (realized) commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011122324