This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic...

In this note, we consider a multisector macroeconomic model under oligopolistic competition. We analyze the effect of an increase of the number of sectors on equilibrium price and on allocations, when the number of oligopolits of each type is constant. We also show that a tax policy has more...

This paper shows that in macroeconomic models of product differentiation that are built on CES utility specifications the widely used assumption of approximating cross price effects to zero, (since Dixit-Stiglitz 1979), plays indeed no crucial role. This is true not only when a large number of...

In this note, we consider a multisector macroeconomic model under oligopolistic competition. We analyze the effect of an increase of the number of sectors on equilibrium price and on allocations, when the number of oligopolits of each type is constant. We also show that a tax policy has more...

The present paper concerns the microeconomic basis for the macroeconomic demand constraint in the form of the Keynesian demand price constraint: taking Say into account denoted by the extended Keynesian demand price constraint. Price flexibility at a scale sufficient for the working of the...

We show how a Schumpeterian process of creative destruction can induce rational, herd-behavior by entrepreneurs across diverse sectors of the economy that may look like it is fuelled by ``animal spirits''. Consequently, a multi-sector economy, in which sector-specific, productivity improvements...

Greater transparency in central bank operations is the most dramatic change in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years. In this paper we present new information on its extent and effects. We show that the trend is general: a large number of central banks have moved in the direction of...

Over the past decade, policymakers in many emerging market economies have opted to limit fluctuations of the value of their domestic currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. A simple interest-parity relationship is used to identify the potential sources of upward pressure on the value of a...

Monetary theory and policy are part of intertemporal public finance. The lecture reviews some interesting recent developments. The two ghosts are the venerable liquidity trap and the Pigou effect or real balance effect. The eccentricities are negative nominal interest rates and the helicopter...

The macroeconomic analysis of fiscal policy is usually based on one of two canonical models--the Barro-Ramsey model of infinitely-lived families or the Diamond-Samuelson model of overlapping generations. This paper argues that neither model is satisfactory and suggests an alternative. In the...