this result, it is established too that adding common knowledge of the rationality of the formation of expectations —on top … of that of rationality of choices and market clearing— does not suffice either to guarantee rational expectations …Rational expectations do not require beliefs to be consistent with history and with what agents can conclude from it …

The notion of optimized rational behavior in the formation of expectations is used in this note to study the dynamics …, the selection of an optimal degree of rationality may lead to the generation of long-term endogenous fluctuations. …

frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many … previously unexploited monthly and real-time measures of inflation expectations. These higher frequency measures tend to … outperform the standard three low frequency survey measures in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality, indicating …

The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could … observations, and the assumption of Bayesian rationality. Since no betting strategy is irrational, Bayesianism is useless as a …

assumption of rationality forms the basis of neoclassical economic theory, question of whether expectations of industrial …Expectations concerning key economic variables certainly influence decisions undertaken by economic agents. Since … enterprises are indeed formed rationally deserves careful attention. Direct data on expectations are available mainly through …

We consider Rational Expectations Equilibria in infinite horizon models in which equilibrium to-day depends upon the …

becoming a metric for rationality. When inferential expectations are built into a Dornbusch-style model of the exchange rate … inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Rational expectations are shown to be a special (limiting) case of inferential expectations, with the test size a …

inferential expectations. If a belief is overturned through the build-up of evidence, agents are assumed to switch to the rational … expectation. Thus, rational expectations is a special case of inferential expectations if agents are unconcerned about mistakenly … an individual choice experiment showing preliminary support for inferential expectations in comparison to either rational …

expectations in the sense that any other expectations justifying his choices imply a smaller likelihood for the history he observes … with limited memory, then there are rationally formed expectations equilibria exhibiting an excess volatility that no … rational expectations equilibrium can match. Given that the limited records or finite memory case may arguably be the relevant …

neoclassical assumption of selfish utility maximization with bounded rationality and satisficing and by incorporating the reaction …