The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison (2003) to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2001. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separate periods, those of the first globalization wave...

Abstract: This paper studies the intranational business cycle - that is the set of regional (prefecture) business cycles - in Japan. One reason for choosing to examine the Japanese case is that long time series and relatively detailed data are available. A Hodrick-Prescott filter is applied to...

This paper proposes classical business cycle turning points for a number of countries based on industrial production. The countries selected are the G7 together with most major European countries. This information enables us to examine the international nature of cyclical movements. In...

The conditions of the `new EMS' - an absence of exchange rate realignments and corresponding added credibility - have given rise to concern about the stabilization properties of the System. Nominal interest rate divergence may have been narrowed ahead of inflation divergence. Cross-country real...

In this paper simulation methods are employed on a two-country, rational expectations continuous-time model to explore the consequences of asymmetrical wage-price processes. As an additional feature the effects are explored of reductions in the degree of financial integration between the two...

A smooth progression from Stage Two to Stage Three of EMU requires that the type of policy planned for Stage Three should be foreshadowed in Stage Two. Two possibilities for that policy are monetary targeting or an interest rate policy feeding back on a nominal variable. The paper re-examines...

This Paper examines the changing relationships between the G7 countries through VAR models for the quarterly growth rates, estimated both over sub-periods and using a rolling data window. Six trivariate models are estimated, all of which include the US and a European (E15) aggregate. In relative...

Money demand instability has been the subject of considerable attention in the recent literature. This paper examines the stability of velocity series for the United States and for five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). A distribution-free test...

The paper presents the text of a lecture given at the Bank of England in December 2005 as the first in a series of lectures in memory of John Flemming. It provides a personal view of what the profession has learnt about currency unions as a result of the establishment and operation of the...

We examine real business cycle convergence for 41 euro area regions and 48 US states. Results obtained by a panel model with spatial correlation indicate that the relevance of common business cycle factors is rather stable over the past two decades in the euro area and the US. Ongoing business...