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We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958800
) has impact on forecasting models. The current impact of volatility - there is no - on option pricing is not justified. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556646
We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126708
Using a unique high-frequency futures dataset, we characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. We find that news produces conditional mean jumps, hence high-frequency stock, bond and exchange rate dynamics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005440071
This paper develops a model for understanding end-user order flow in the FX market. The model addresses several puzzling findings. First, the estimated price-impact of flow from different end-user segments is, dollar-for-dollar, quite different. Second, order flow from segments traditionally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005396412
forecasting models as they easily outperform the simple random walk model--which is rarely defeated in the literature of exchange … rate forecasting--in term of out- of-sample forecasting, for all the forecast horizons ranging from one to fourteen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005408205
We characterize the response of U.S., German and British stock, bond and foreign exchange markets to real-time U.S. macroeconomic news. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of high-frequency futures returns for each of the markets. We find that news surprises produce conditional mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022409
This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro … model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine … forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005622961
This paper is a necessary companion to the one entitled The West European Woollen Industries and their Struggles for International Markets, c.1000 - 1500. No one can properly comprehend that five-century history of international competition for textile markets, without some basic understanding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827217
This paper revisits, modifies, and combines elements of three major 'institutional' international-trade models, none of which has yet fully received the attention that it deserves, to provide a new explanation for the growth, decline, and then rebirth of internationally-oriented fairs in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827218