We develop a business cycle model in which consumption goods, physical capital, and human capital are produced in separate sectors. An important feature of the model is that human and machine inputs in the production process are treated symmetrically: each has both a stock and flow component....

We employ a neoclassical business-cycle model to study two sources of business-cycle fluctuations: marginal efficiency of investment shocks, and total factor productivity shocks. The parameters of the model are estimated using a Bayesian procedure that accommodates prior uncertainty about their...

Who was closer to the source of business cycle fluctuations--Keynes or Prescott and Solow? Two types of business-cycle impulses which have been associated with their names -- marginal efficiency of investment shocks (Keynes) and technology shocks (Prescott and Solow) -- are studied here in a...

We use a business cycle model to analyze the general equilibrium implications of a representative agent's decision to devote time to skill acquisition activities, which are modeled as boosting subsequent labor productivity by increasing the stock of human capital. We use aggregate data on...

Bayesian procedures for evaluating linear restrictions imposed by economic theory on dynamic econometric models are applied to a simple class of presentvalue models of stock prices. The procedures generate inferences that are not conditional on ancillary assumptions regarding the nature of the...

In “Modeling Stock Prices without Knowing How to Induce Stationarity” (1994, <italic>Econometric Theory</italic> 10, 701–719), we used posterior-odds calculations to evaluate restrictions imposed by a present-value model of stock prices across the equations of a VAR representation of stock prices and...