This paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory … transitory shocks to aggregate output on private consumption in poor countries. …

This paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory … transitory shocks to aggregate output on private consumption in poor countries. …

The objective of this paper is to shed light on mechanism which increases fluctuation in consumption of least developed … countries. In general large fluctuation in consumption makes consumers worse off. This fact suggests that accumulation of … knowledge on the generating mechanism of the large consumption fluctuation very likely contributes to welfare improvement of the …

sense of very high investment and very low consumption, giving rise to rapid capital accumulation; and an imbalance between …. Both imbalances imply a low rate of time discount by both government and society: consumption in the present is forgone in … favour of consumption in the future. The paper examines how these imbalances came about, and goes on to consider whether they …

countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises also reveal that consumption changes are highly predictable. Our vector … autoregressive (VAR) model analysis also shows significantly positive responses of consumption to income shocks, and non …-negligible proportions of variations in consumption are explained by innovations in income. …

China. We revisit this issue by addressing direct evidence of the predictability of consumption growth in China during the … strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises show that consumption changes are highly …

The budget constraint requires that, eventually, consumption must adjust fully to any permanent shock to income …