This paper presents a theoretical model of exchange-rate determination intended to address the forward premium puzzle. It also explains the empirical observation that risk premiums depend on interest differentials. The model's closed-form solution indicates that currency risk premiums depend on...

This paper identifies a specific set of agents as noise traders in U.S. equity markets, and examines their effects on returns. These agents, who speculate using the "head-and-shoulders" chart pattern, are shown to qualify as noise traders because (1) trading volume is exceptionally high when...

In this paper, I provide evidence that currency stop-loss orders contribute to rapid, self-reinforcing price movements, or "price cascades." Stop-loss orders, which instruct a dealer to buy (sell) a certain amount of currency at the market rate once the rate has risen (fallen) to a prespecified...

After disinflation has been achieved, agents who form more sophisticated forecasts have lower confidence in the sustainability of a peg compared to less sophisticated agents. Furthermore, sustained financial stability leads to a declining proportion of sophisticated agents. Thus, the credibility...