In this paper we consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents’ forecasts using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a...

In Evans, Guse, and Honkapohja (2008) the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable under adaptive learning, and unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. In the current paper a modified model is presented that includes a locally stable...

In Evans, Guse, and Honkapohja (2008) the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable under adaptive learning, and unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. In the current paper a modified model is presented that includes a locally stable...

What kind of additional co-operation (-ordination) is necessary and feasible to cope with the new institutional set-up under EMU? Starting from the episode of the repo rate cut by the ECB in early 1999, it is asked what would have happened under a business as usual scenario. In this case, the...

A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is developed, containing 13 estimated equations – covering major national account variables, government expenditures and revenues, interest rates, prices and the labour market. The model is tailored to analyze effects of changes in the oil price...

In this paper we introduce an application of the supply-side channel for fiscal policy to the basic New Keynesian model. We use a proportional tax rate instead of lump sum tax and introduce the distortions of a tax wedge. We derive a closed economy forward-looking model with government...

In this paper we introduce an application of the supply-side channel for fiscal policy to the basic New Keynesian model. We use a proportional tax rate instead of lump sum tax and introduce the distortions of a tax wedge. We derive a closed economy forward-looking model with government...

Az előre bejelentett csúszó árfolyamrendszer központi helyet foglal el a magyar hatóságok által 1995 márciusában bevezetett kiigazítási csomagban. Az új rendszer fő céljai: a versenyképesség helyreállítása, megtartása és egyúttal az inflációs várakozások fékezése,...

This paper studies a multi-country currency union of small open economies. Demand-side disturbances hamper monetary union stabilisation unless participating countries’ business cycles are perfectly synchronised. In the face of country-specific supply shocks, a currency union of small open...

The subsidiarity principle governing the collection of statistical data in a monetary union may result in asymmetrical information. The national governments may be tempted to distort their economic and financial data communicated to the union’s central bank in order to influence its monetary...