In this paper we develop a time series model which allows long-term disequilibriums to have epochs of non-stationarity, giving the impression that long term relationships between economic variables have temporarily broken down, before they endogenously collapse back towards their long term...

In this paper we develop a time series model which allows long-term disequilibriums to have epochs of non-stationarity, giving the impression that long term relationships between economic variables have temporarily broken down, before they endogenously collapse back towards their long term...

This paper extends recent findings of Lieberman and Phillips (2014) on stochastic unit root (SUR) models to a multivariate case including a comprehensive asymptotic theory for estimation of the model's parameters. The extensions are useful because they lead to a generalization of the...

A time-varying autoregression is considered with a similarity-based coefficient and possible drift. It is shown that the random walk model has a natural interpretation as the leading term in a small-sigma expansion of a similarity model with an exponential similarity function as its...

This paper considers the properties of the tests of the null hypothesis of a random walk against the alternative of a stochastic unit root when the data are generated by a process related to, but not exactly equal to, the processes under the null and alternative. The extensive Monte Carlo...

This note shows that a very simple model can generate returns that resemble most of the temporal and distributional behavior of long returns surprisingly well. The model is based on the stochastic unit root process introduced in Granger and Swanson (1997).

We develop Bayesian techniques for estimation and model comparison in a novel Generalised Stochastic Unit Root (GSTUR) model. This allows us to investigate the presence of a deterministic time trend in economic series, while allowing the degree of persistence to change over time. In particular...

This paper makes use of the novel Generalized Stochastic Unit Root (GSTUR) model, Bayesian model estimation and model comparison techniques to investigate the presence of a deterministic time trend in economic series. The model is specified to allow for changes in persistence over time, such as...

This note presents possibly hitherto unnoticed, or only implicitly discussed, properties of the stochastic unit root process developed in Granger and Swanson (1997) and Leybourne, McCabe, and Tremayne (1996).

This paper considers the properties of the tests of the null hypothesis of a random walk against the alternative of a stochastic unit root when the data are generated by a process related to, but not exactly equal to, the processes under the null and alternative. The extensive Monte Carlo...