Several studies have developed empirical models of U.K. money demand using the century of annual and phase-average data in Friedman and Schwartz (1982). The current paper evaluates key models from those studies, employing tests of constancy and encompassing. The evidence strongly favors an...

This paper considers the statistical and econometric effect that fixed n-period phase-averaging has on time series generated by some simple dynamic processes. We focus on the variance and autocorrelation of the data series and of the disturbance term for levels and difference equations involving...

Even though pieces of empirical evidence individually may corroborate an economic theory, their joint existence may refute that same theory. We discuss examples concerning testing for omitted variables, simultaneity, and rational expectations in the context of general-to-simple versus...

This paper discusses the econometric methodology of general-to-specific modeling, in which the modeler simplifies an initially general model that adequately characterizes the empirical evidence within his or her theoretical framework. Central aspects of this approach include the theory of...

Virtually all previous narrow money demand studies for the United Kingdom have used seasonally adjusted data for money, prices, and expenditure. This paper develops a constant, data-coherent M1 demand equation for the United Kingdom with seasonally unadjusted data. For that model, we address...

This paper critically re-evaluates some of the fundamental empirical claims about monetary behavior in the United Kingdom made by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz in their 1982 book Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom. We focus on six aspects of their analysis: the...

This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general; and these concepts are then applied to...

This paper evaluates an empirical model of UK money demand developed by Friedman and Schwartz in Monetary Trends... .Testing reveals mis-specification and hence the potential for an improved model. Using recursive procedures on their annual data, we obtain a better-fitting, constant, dynamic...

Despite the importance of well-specified empirical money-demand functions for inference, forecasting, and policy, problems in modeling have arisen concerning the economic theories of money demand, the data, institutional frameworks, financial innovation, and econometric implementation. By...

The statistical formulation of the econometric model is viewed as a sequence of marginalizing and conditioning operations which reduce the parameterization to manageable dimensions. Such operations entail that the "error" is a derived rather than an autonomous process, suggesting designing the...