This paper reestimates the simple forecasting regressions in Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox (1993) (CFW), which … inappropriate when variables lagged one period are used in the forecasting equation. I reestimate the forecasting regressions using … indicators as controls in the forecasting regression. These changes produce notable qualitative differences with the results …

dynamics, which, if not taken sufficiently into account by a forecasting model, could be associated with predictable forecast … pervasive in the forecasts of other large-scale econometric models. Key Words: Error Correction Models, Forecasting, Consumption …

forecasting variables. ; Why should wealth, detrended in this way, forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal …

This article is the first formal investigation of consumer attitudes that compares the forecasting power of the … forecasting power for most categories of spending. As part of their analysis, the authors examine the ways in which the surveys …