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Are twin currency and debt crises special?
Bauer, Christian; Herz, Bernhard; Karb, Volker - Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2006
each type of crises has a unique set of macroeconomic causes. We also identify internal contagion and selection bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005163004
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Speculative Behaviour, Debt Default and Contagion: An Explanation of the Latin American Crisis 2001-2002
Allsopp, Louise - Centre for International Economic Studies, School of … - 2003
contagion. A basic model of contagion shows how economies which appear fundamentally sound, can fail to meet foreign obligations … of debt default and contagion. However, when these speculators view the economy with a degree of uncertainty, the … likelihood of default and contagion is even greater. SpeculatorsÂ’ perceptions over the state of the economy are therefore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008740156
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The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes
Arghyrou, Michael; Tsoukalas, John - Economics Section, Cardiff Business School - 2010
fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008606489
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The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes, Mechanics and Outcomes
Arghyrou, Michael G.; Tsoukalas, John D. - CESifo - 2010
fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799726
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Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries
Lestano; Jacobs, Jan; Kuper, Gerard H. - EconWPA - 2004
Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005119472
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Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises
Schimmelpfennig, Axel; Roubini, Nouriel; Manasse, Paolo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248202
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Managing Financial Crises; Recent Experience and Lessons for Latin America
Kincaid, G. Russell; Collyns, Charles - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005824823
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Is There a Causal Link between Currency and Debt Crisis?
Dreher, Axel; Herz, Bernhard; Karb, Volker - Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut an der Universität Konstanz - 2005
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005051689
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Rules of Thumb for Sovereign Debt Crises
Roubini, Nouriel; Manasse, Paolo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
This paper contains an empirical investigation of the set of economic and political conditions that are associated with a likely occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Binary Recursive Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604956
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German bank lending during emerging market crises: A bank level analysis
Heid, Frank; Nestmann, Thorsten; Mauro, di; Weder, Beatrice - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2004
This paper studies German bank lending during the Asian and Russian crises, using a bank level data set, which has been compiled from credit data at the Deutsche Bundesbank. Our aim is to gain more insight into the pattern of German bank lending during financial crises in emerging markets. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082775