In this paper, we estimate deseasonalized monthly series for Swiss Gross Domestic Product at constant prices of 1990 for the period 1980-1998. They are consistent with the quarterly figures estimated by the Federal Office for Economic Development and Labour and are obtained by including...

We analyze several identification frameworks based on operating procedures to measure monetary policy in a small open economy. We use a two-stage non-recursive VAR model to identify monetary shocks. We construct then various overall monetary policy indicators based on different residuals...

Empirical evidence shows that macroeconomic fundamentals have little explanatory power for nominal exchange rates. On the other hand, the recent "microstructure approach to exchange rates" has shown that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flows. This...

Stylized facts on output and interest rates in the U.S. have so far proved hard to match with business cycle models. But these ¯ndings do not acknowledge that the economy might well be driven by di®erent shocks, and by each in di®erent ways. I estimate covariances of output, nominal and real...

We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the Diamond (1965) OLG model, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of...

The paper analyzes the impact of financial liberalizations and reforms in emerging markets on the dynamics of capital flows to these markets, using a simple model of international investors' behavior. We first show that the gradual nature of liberalizations, combined with the cost of absorbing...

In this paper, we test for the presence of market discipline in the Swiss deposit market. In particular, we examine whether depositors monitor their banks by withdrawing their saving deposits whenever the fundamentals of their bank is no longer satisfactory. We use a panel of bank-specific data...

There is widespread evidence of excess return predictability in financial markets. In this paper we examine whether this predictability is related to expectational errors. To consider this issue, we use data on survey expectations of market participants in the stock market, the foreign exchange...

In general equilibrium models, optimal cyclical monetary policy is usually derived around an optimal steady-state inflation level, which in most cases is zero or equal to the negative of the real interest rate. This paper examines whether and how different steady-state inflation levels and...

The timely release of macroeconomic data imposes a distinct structure on the panel: the clustering and sequential ordering of real and nominal variables. We call this orderly release of economic data sequential information flow. The ordered panel generates a new class of restrictions that are...