In this paper, we show that spurious cointegration can occur when there are breaks in the variances of the innovation errors of time series, especially when the breaks occur early in the sample period. An empirical example is provided to demonstrate the case.

This study aims to demonstrate that the concentration (or distribution) of firm R&D intensities within an industry is closely related to the overall R&D intensity of the industry. Unlike the well-studied relationship between sales concentration, or market structure, and industry R&D intensity,...

Many securities are, to a certain extent, subject to credit risk in one way or another. Both the financial institutions and regulators are keen to have their credit risk exposures well managed. In order to fulfill their needs, the market for credit derivatives has become one of the fast growing...

In pricing primary-market options and in making secondary markets, financial intermediaries depend on the quality of forecasts of the variance of the underlying assets. Hence, the gain from improved pricing of options would be a measure of the value of a forecast of underlying asset returns....

To forecast future option prices, autoregressive models of implied volatility derived from observed option prices are commonly employed [see Day and Lewis (1990), and Harvey and Whaley (1992)]. In contrast, the ARCH model proposed by Engle (1982) models the dynamic behavior in volatility,...

Making accurate forecasts of the future direction of interest rates is a vital element when making economic decisions. The focus on central banks as they make decisions about the future direction of interest rates requires the forecaster to assess the likely outcome of committee decisions based...

Support for the Taylor principle is considerable but the focus of empirical investigation has been on estimated coefficients at the mean of the interest rate distribution. We offer a new approach that estimates the response of interest rates to inflation and that output gap at various points...