In recent years, the sales reports of major retail chains have received increasing attention as timely indicators of consumer spending. Despite this attention, a close review of the literature on chain store indexes as macroeconomic indicators reveals that there is no literature! This paper...

The authors document the trends in U.S. saving during the 1980s, giving particular attention to those measures of saving that gauge the growth of productive assets. They go on to assess the effects of these developments on capital formation and the nation's long-term economic potential.

The purchasing managers' index is a widely watched but virtually untested indicator of manufacturing activity. This article examines how well the index lives up to its billing as a leading indicator. The author also explores whether the index supplies information about the economy beyond that...

Fiscal policy changes in the 1980s had several possible implications for the long-run performance of the U.S. economy. The authors review the impact of tax reductions on saving, investment, and work effort, the implications of increased federal deficits for national saving and private...