The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and changes in the international context. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilization of its previous forms - either experimental (tested...

The version 2005 of the Romanian macromodel (Dobrescu 2005, 2006) was built using data for the period 1990 (sometimes 1989) - 2004. This paper insists on three (probably the most complicated) problems: the evaluation of export, import, foreign capital inflows and exchange rate in euros, since...

The paper presents a possible medium-run evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organised in two chapters. The first chapter discusses the conceptual framework of the macromodel used for simulations, insisting on the behavioural (stochastic) relationships and the sectoral decomposition of the...

The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications of the internal policies and the international environment. This version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during...

The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium business cycle model that combines elements of existing sticky-price and limited-participation specifications. Sticky prices are incorporated, following Rotemberg (1982), by assuming that...

In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting...

This paper looks at the history of money and its modern form from a scientific and mathematical point of view. The approach here is to emphasize simplicity. A straightforward model and algebraic formula for a large economy analogous to the ideal gas law of thermodynamics is proposed. It may be...

In September 2002, a new market in %u201CEconomic Derivatives%u201D was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are...

A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to...

The determinants of money velocity are explored under various assumptions on interest rate uncertainty in a monetary general equilibrium model. It is found that the appearance of velocity function instability can be produced by overlooking interest rate stochastic volatility. In addition, when...