This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ̶ the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first...

This paper presents empirical evidence against the standard dichotomy in macroeconomics that separates growth from the volatility of economic fluctuations. In a sample of ninety-two countries as well as a sample of OECD countries, the authors find that countries with higher volatility have lower...

This paper studies the efficiency with which physical capital can be reallocated across sectors. It presents a model of a firm selling specialized capital in a thin resale market. The model predicts that the selling price depends not only on the sectoral specificity of capital, but also on the...

This paper examines the link between interindustry wage differentials and subsequent growth of industry variables such as employment, GDP and labor productivity. We find that industries that paid higher than average wages in 1959 experienced significantly lower employment growth and GDP growth...

This paper presents evidence that the "cost channel" may be an important part of the monetary transmission mechanism. We argue that if working capital is an essential component of production and distribution, monetary contractions can affect output through a supply channel as well as the...

In this paper we re-examine the recent evidence that technology shocks do not produce business cycle patterns in the data. We first extend Gali's (1999) work, which uses long-run restrictions to identify technology shocks, by examining whether the identified shocks can be plausibly interpreted...

This paper develops and tests the implications of optimal consumption behavior with borrowing constraints. The theory shows that liquidity constraints imply a distinctive intertemporal relationship between durable and nondurable goods consumption. Binding liquidity constraints appear as part of...

This paper examines the short-run dynamics of manufacturing costs by detailing how plants in the U.S. automobile industry change output. Weekly data show a variety of margins on which firms adjust production. These margins, which are distinct from the usual factor demand choices, differ in their...

This paper investigates the link between the trend in the returns to education and foreign competition in concentrated industries. The authors argue that the impact of foreign competition on the relative wages of less skilled workers depends on the market structure of the industry penetrated....