This paper investigates the claim made by Kehoe and Prescott (2002) that Switzerland and New Zealand experienced 'great depressions' in the last two decades. We question the appropriateness of the measure used by Kehoe and Prescott (GDP per working-age person) and propose a more accurate measure...

After conceptual clarification of "international business cycle" and a review of the literature, a new indicator is proposed. This indicator refers to two time series only and allows for an internationally comparable quantification of a country's position in the business cycle. We then calculate...

: This text contains the winter forecast 2014 of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, released on 17 December 2014. We present the recent economic developments in Switzerland and abroad, and discusses the main forecast results in the various sectors of the economy. We expect the Swiss...

Short-term forecasting methods joint issue with Économie et PrévisionThis issue is a special issue in two respects. First, all contributions deal with shortterm forecasting methods. Second and above all, this special issue results from an original and fruitful collaboration between two...

This paper re-examines the impact of demographic factors on the current account balance. To this end, we develop an analytical framework that is more general than the one commonly used in the literature in three aspects. First, it accounts for the facts that the world current account balance...

This paper documents the construction of a composite leading indicator for the Peruvian economy based on the business tendency surveys (BTS) conducted by the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP). We first classify potential composite leading indicators into "semantic" and "sophisti-cated"...

This paper first discusses concepts, definitions and theoretical explanations for international business cycles. This is followed by an overview of previous empirical studies. We then argue that for ex post analyses the output gap is a univariate quantification of the business cycle that is...

From a theoretical perspective, the output gap is probably the most comprehensive and convincing concept to describe the cyclical position of an economy. Unfortunately, for practical purposes, the concept depends on the determination of potential output, which is an inherently unobservable...

The paper describes tests of hypotheses from economic history concerning the significance of financial development as a determinant of economic growth. It goes beyond the existing studies in drawing on a large panel data set covering 93 countries from 1970-90 and includes a new proxy for the...

To clarify the causal links between financial activity and economic growth, three theoretical models are analyzed and a structural equation path models is estimated. In the modeling part, poverty traps result from large fixed costs or high proportions of real investment to run a financial...