The model of rational decision-making in most of economics and statistics is expected utility theory (EU) axiomatised by von Neumann and Morgenstern, Savage and others. This is less the case, however, in financial economics and mathematical finance, where investment decisions are commonly based...

Simulation evidence obtained within a Bayesian model of price-setting in a betting market, where anonymous gamblers queue to bet against a risk-neutral bookmaker, suggests that a gambler who wants to maximize future profits should trade on the advice of the analyst cum probability forecaster who...

This study examines the success of bets on Australian Football League (AFL) matches made by identifying panels of highly proficient forecasters and betting on the basis of their pooled opinions. The data set is unusual, in that all forecasts are in the form of probabilities. Bets are made "on...

This paper examines whether the identity of a broker involved in transactions contains information. Using a sample of transactions from the Australian Stock Exchange-where broker identity is transparent-we provide evidence that consecutive buyer-/seller-initiated transactions by the same broker...

This study provides new evidence regarding the effect of limit order book disclosure on trading behavior. The natural experiment affected by the Sydney Futures Exchange in January 2001, when it increased limit order book disclosure from depth at the best bid and ask prices to depth at the three...