The paper tests the hypothesis that the consistent neutrality of the Danish Monarchy during the great wars of the eighteenth century may have permanently increased the kingdom’s shipping in the Mediterranean. It does so by using data derived from Algerian Passport Registers for...

This paper constructs simple models in which industrialization is driven by human capital accumulation. Industrialization can explain the robust correlation between equipment investment and growth in developing countries. We show that government intervention is justified within our stylized...

We consider cointegration tests in the situation where the cointegration rank is decient. This situation is of interest in nite sample analysis and in relation to recent work on identication robust cointegration inference. We derive asymptotic theory for tests for cointegration rank and for...

Two diculties arise in the estimation of AB models: (i) the criterion function has no simple analytical expression, (ii) the aggregate properties of the model cannot be analytically understood. In this paper we show how to circumvent these diculties and under which conditions ergodic models can...

The apc package includes functions for age-period-cohort analysis based on the canonical parametrisation of Kuang et al. (2008). The package includes functions for organizing the data, descriptive plots, a deviance table, estimation of (sub-models of) the age-period-cohort model, a plot for...

In a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ, equilibrium-correction models are a risky device from which to forecast. Equilibrium shifts entail systematic forecast failure, and indeed forecasts will tend to move in the opposite direction to the data....

We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ. Six aspects of the role of unpredictability are distinguished, compounding the four additional mistakes most...

Parallel computation has a long history in econometric computing, but is not at all wide spread. We believe that a major impediment is the labour cost of coding for parallel architectures. Moreover, programs for specific hardware often become obsolete quite quickly. Our approach is to take a...