This paper analyzes the daily incidence of violence during the Second Intifada. We compare several alternative statistical models with different dynamic and structural stability characteristics while keeping modelling complexity to a minimum by only maintaining the assumption that the process...

A dynamic factor VAR model, estimated by MCMC simulation, is employed to assess the relative severity of post-war U.S. recessions. Joint modeling and estimation of all model unknowns yields rank estimates that fully account for parameter uncertainty. A convenient by-product of the simulation...

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian estimation of non-linear stochastic differential equations when observations are discretely sampled. The estimation framework relies on the introduction of latent auxiliary data to complete the missing diffusion between each pair of measurements. Tuned...

The authors examine autoregressive time series models subject to regime switching. A Bayesian framework is develope d in which the unobserved.states, one for each time point, are treated as missing data and then analyzed using the Gibbs sampler. This approac h is straightforward because the...

Kim, Shephard, and Chib (1998) provided a Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models based on a fast and reliable Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Their method ruled out the leverage effect, which is known to be important in applications. Despite this, their basic method has...

We provide a detailed summary of the large and vibrant emerging literature that deals with the multivariate modeling of conditional volatility of financial time series within the framework of stochastic volatility. The developments and achievements in this area represent one of the great success...

This paper deals with Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models under a multivariate student-<italic>t</italic> distribution for the structural shocks. Based on the solution algorithm of Klein (2000) and the gamma-normal representation of the <italic>t</italic>-distribution, the TaRB-MH algorithm of Chib and...