A dynamic factor VAR model, estimated by MCMC simulation, is employed to assess the relative severity of post-war U.S. recessions. Joint modeling and estimation of all model unknowns yields rank estimates that fully account for parameter uncertainty. A convenient by-product of the simulation...

This paper analyzes the daily incidence of violence during the Second Intifada. We compare several alternative statistical models with different dynamic and structural stability characteristics while keeping modelling complexity to a minimum by only maintaining the assumption that the process...

This paper deals with Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models under a multivariate student-<italic>t</italic> distribution for the structural shocks. Based on the solution algorithm of Klein (2000) and the gamma-normal representation of the <italic>t</italic>-distribution, the TaRB-MH algorithm of Chib and...

In this paper, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods are exploited to provide a unified, practical likelihood-based framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models. A highly effective method is developed that samples all the unobserved volatilities at once using an approximating...

This paper provides methods for carrying out likelihood based inference for diffusion driven models, for example discretely observed multivariate diffusions, continuous time stochastic volatility models and counting process models. The diffusions can potentially be non-stationary. Although our...