We review the arguments in the finance and open macroeconomics literature relevant for the Central Bank to set the level of the interest rate in an open economy. The two relevant risks are the currency and country risks. The country risk (Brazil Risk) is measured with different financials...

A principal explicação sugerida pela literatura para o viés do preço futuro em relação à taxa de câmbio que prevalecerá no futuro é a existência de um prêmio de risco. Aplicamos aqui os principais modelos teóricos e técnicas econométricas para identificação e mensuração do...

This paper uses a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with exogenous variables to explain a change in regime in Brazilian nominal interest rates. By using an indicator of currency crises -which is chosen endogenously - the model tries to explain the difference in the dynamics of nominal...

This paper examines the recent evolution of the Brazilian public domestic debt and interprets it in light of the confidence crisis literature. The analysis of the recent developments in the Brazilian public domestic debt market shows that the likelihood of a default must not be assessed only...

The Brazilian domestic debt has posed two challenges to policy-makers: it has grown very fast and its maturity is extremely short. This has prompted fears that a default or a compulsory lengthening scheme would be imposed. Here, we analyze the domestic public debt management experience in...

We analyze the Brazilian experience in the 1990s to access the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows in restricting financial inflows and changing their composition towards long term flows. Econometric exercises (VARs) lead us to conclude that controls on capital inflows were effective in...

Despite the large size of the Brazilian debt market, as well the large diversity of its bonds, the picture that emerges is of a market that has not yet completed its transition from the role it performed during the megainflation years, namely that of providing a liquid asset that provided...

The resumption of capital flows to developing countries in the nineties is intertwined in the Brazilian case with the attempts to achieve inflation stabilization. A very restrictive monetary policy has offered probably the world’s highest yield to fixed income investments. In the context of...

More than eleven years after the end of hyperinflation in Brazil, domestic bond markets have been unable to lengthen the average maturity of both public and private bonds. This paper shows that the lengthening is theoretically and practically (we analyzed the experiences of Israel, Mexico and...