Showing 1 - 10 of 1,152
A copula defines the probability that observations from two time series lie below given quantiles. It is proposed that stationarity tests constructed from indicator variables be used to test against the hypothesis that the copula is changing over time. Tests associated with different quantiles...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005207820
A time-varying quantile can be fitted to a sequence of observations by formulating a time series model for the corresponding population quantile and iteratively applying a suitably modified state space signal extraction algorithm. It is shown that such time-varying quantiles satisfy the defining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005783713
A copula models the relationships between variables independently of their marginal distributions. When the variables are time series, the copula may change over time. A statistical framework is suggested for tracking these changes over time. When the marginal distribu- tions change,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005783807
An EGARCH model in which the conditional distribution is heavy-tailed and skewed is proposed. The properties of the model, including unconditional moments, autocorrelations and the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator, are obtained. Evidence for skewness in conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699818
In dynamic conditional score models, the innovation term of the dynamic specification is the score of the conditional distribution. These models are investigated for non-negative variables, using distributions from the generalized beta and generalized gamma families. The log-normal distribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699826
An unobserved components model in which the signal is buried in noise that is non-Gaussian may throw up observations that, when judged by the Gaussian yardstick, are outliers. We describe an observation driven model, based on a conditional Student t-distribution, that is tractable and retains...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010699830
We compare two EGARCH models which belong to a new class of models in which the dynamics are driven by the score of the conditional distribution of the observations. Models of this kind are called dynamic conditional score (DCS) models and their form facilitates the development of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010700219
A time series model in which the signal is buried in noise that is non-Gaussian may throw up observations that, when judged by the Gaussian yardstick, are outliers. We describe an observation driven model, based on an exponential generalized beta distribution of the second kind (EGB2), in which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010700221
Cyclical components in economic time series are analysed in a Bayesian framework, thereby allowing prior notions about periodicity to be used. The method is based on a general class of unobserved component models that allow relatively smooth cycles to be extracted. Posterior densities of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005647345
The relationship between in.ation and the output gap can be modeled simply and effectively by including an unobserved random walk component in the model. The dynamic properties match the stylized facts and the random walk component satisfies the properties normally required for core in.ation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005647352