Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two...

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the...

This paper examines the issue of international synchronization of cycles. Using spectral methods we analyze the pattern of co-movement (coherences) of growth rate cycles between countries across frequency bands and overtime. We also examine the lead-lag structure (phase shifts) of country cycles...

This paper examines the nexus between domestic and foreign financial markets viz. Indian and U.S. money markets, equity markets and the common market for currency. We estimate volatility, spillovers-both in returns and in volatility, and cross-correlations in a multivariate framework for the...

We analyze the impact of weather shocks on price formation in spot and futures market for food in India where until the recent introduction of commodity futures markets in 2005, the transmission of these shocks to short-term (spot) price movements was unclear. Hitherto, the price discovery...

We analyze the impact of climate shocks on price formation in spot and futures market for food in India where until the recent introduction of commodity futures markets in 2005, the transmission of these shocks on short-term (spot) price movements was unclear. The existence of a futures market...

This study examines the macroeconomic factors underlying FDI flows to India using cointegrating VAR with I(1) exogenous variables. The results indicate that conventional determinants such as a depreciating exchange rate, higher domestic returns, higher domestic output and better infrastructure...

This two-volume set brings together some of the most significant previously published articles by leading scholars in the field. The volumes investigate various aspects of financial forecasting including the forecasting of earnings, bankruptcy, stock prices, interest rates, exchange rates and...

This paper examines the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic activity in India in the post liberalisation period. Foreign direct investment is measured both by the amount approved as well as the actual flows. Economic activity is measured by the index of industrial...