Motivated by the recurrent Neural Networks, this paper proposes a recurrent Support Vector Regression (SVR) procedure to forecast nonlinear ARMA model based simulated data and real data of financial returns. The forecasting ability of the recurrent SVR is compared with three competing methods,...

The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics: improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are born equal:...

The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics. Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are born equal....

Since the mid-1970's, the unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) of forward and spot exchange rates has been intensively studied and tested with inconclusive and contradictory results. On the basis of the hypothesis, this paper provides variable mean response (VMR) random coefficients models to...

TThis article examines the dynamic and stochastic behavior of the beta coefficient (to be referred to as the currency beta) of the unbiasedness hypothesis (UH) in foreign exchange markets. We argue that the dynamics and stochastics of currency betas can be attributed to the dynamic behavior of...

We identify a set of "rules of thumb" that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970–2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF)...

We provide original results on national and global stock market liquidity and its interaction with macro-economic variables for six of the G7 economies, namely: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and UK, building on the methodology and on the US evidence by Naes et al. (2011). Using a number...

A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...