Exponential smoothing methods do not involve a formal procedure for identifying the underlying data generating process. The issue is then whether prediction intervals should be estimated by a theoretical approach, with the assumption that the method is optimal in some sense, or by an empirical...

Of the various renewable energy resources, wind power is widely recognized as one of the most promising. The management of wind farms and electricity systems can benefit greatly from the availability of estimates of the probability distribution of wind power generation. However, most research...

A key input to the call center staffing process is a forecast for the number of calls arriving. Density forecasts of arrival rates are needed for analytical call center models, which assume Poisson arrivals with a stochastic arrival rate. Density forecasts of call volumes can be used in...

The efficient management of wind farms and electricity systems benefit greatly from accurate wind power quantile forecasts. For example, when a wind power producer offers power to the market for a future period, the optimal bid is a quantile of the wind power density. An approach based on...