This paper investigates the impact of low fertility on long-term capital accumulation and economic welfare. We find that the impact differs according to whether the low fertility arises from a decrease in the intensive or extensive margin of fertility. We show that an increase in the intensive...

This paper examines the effect of the timing of childbirth on capital accumulation and welfare in a simple overlapping generations model, where each agent lives for four periods and works for two periods. We show that delayed childbearing not only reduces population, but also generates...

This paper examines the effect of the timing of childbirth on capital accumulation and welfare in a simple overlapping generations model, where each agent lives for four periods and works for two periods. We show that delayed childbearing not only reduces population, but also generates...

This paper constructs a theoretical model that predicts, as observed in some currently developing countries, that the average school enrollment ratio may fall even when the average fertility rate declines. Unlike existing models, the current analysis indicates that economic growth may slow down...

This paper theoretically investigates the effect of population aging on the employment share of an elder care service industry. We show that there exists the threshold level of income elasticity of demand for the elder care service, above which population aging spurs economic growth. In a closed...