We compare the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates of five Central and Eastern European currencies...

This article compares the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian vector error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates for five Central and Eastern...

This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The...

The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. It is shown that the neoclassical growth model does not yet adequately describe the growth process in these countries. This makes a direct growth...

In this paper we derive the closed form solution for multistep predictions of the conditional means and their covariances from multivariate ARMA-GARCH models. These are useful e.g. in mean variance portfolio analysis when the rebalancing frequency is lower than the data frequency. In this...

The missing wage rigidity in general equilibrium models of efficiency wages is an artifact of the external wage reference perspective conventionally adopted by the literature. Efficiency wage models based on an internal wage reference perspective are capable of generating strong wage rigidity....

In this paper we use principal components augmented regressions (PCARs), partly in conjunction with model averaging, to determine the variables relevant for economic growth. The use of PCARs allows to effectively tackle two major problems that the empirical growth literature faces: (i) the...

This study verifies whether the results of proportional capital income taxation on the risk-taking of a loss-averse investor will still hold when the return of a risky asset has a general continuous distribution. We extend the previous literature, which assumes a binomial distribution of asset...

We provide a systematic comparison of the out-of-sample forecasts based on multivariate macroeconomic models and forecast combinations for the euro against the US dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. We use profit maximization measures based on directional accuracy...

This research examines capital income taxation for a loss averse investor under some acceptable in the literature reference levels relative to which are the changes in the level of wealth valued. Depending on the reference level, some results indicate that it could be possible for a capital...