This paper examines the consequences of estimating a past-dependent (causal) AR model from data generated by a stationary noncausal process with a future-dependent component. We show that the outcomes of that estimation depend on the noncausal persistence. When the noncausal persistence is...

This paper introduces nonlinear dynamic factor models for various applications related to risk analysis. Traditional factor models represent the dynamics of processes driven by movements of latent variables, called the factors. Our approach extends this setup by introducing factors defined as...

This paper presents a new general class of compound autoregressive (Car) models for non-Gaussian time series. The distinctive feature of the class is that Car models are specified by means of the conditional Laplace transforms. This approach allows for simple derivation of the ergodicity...

This paper revisits the filtering and prediction in noncausal and mixed autoregressive processes and provides a simple alternative set of methods that are valid for processes with infinite variances. The prediction method provides complete predictive densities and prediction intervals at any...

This paper examines causality between the series of returns and transaction volumes in high frequency data. The dynamics of both series is restricted to transitions between a finite number of states. Depending on the state selection criteria, this approach approximates the dynamics of varying...