Age effects and birth cohort effects have not been differentiated in happiness studies. In this paper, age-period-cohort decomposition is applied to happiness data in the US. Since the relationship is linear, such as age = period − cohort, it is not possible to identify the three effects....

This paper proposes a new forecasting method in which the cointegration rank switches at unknown times. In this method, time series observations are divided into several segments, and a cointegrated vector autoregressive model is fitted to each segment. The goodness of fit of the global model,...

This paper compares two methods of analyzing aggregate data that is classified by period and age. Because there is a linear relationship among age, period, and cohort, it is not possible to distinguish the separate effects without employing an identifying assumption. The first method, which is...

Aggregate data of tax burdens in the U.S. and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using the Bayesian cohort models which were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. Main findings are that in both countries the...

A model-selection-based unit-root detection by using the Bayesian information criterion is proposed. First, six alternative model classes are obtained considering the presence or absence of a unit root and considering three kinds of deterministic terms: no constant, constant, constant and trend....

Aggregate data of homeownership rates in the US and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using the Bayesian cohort models which were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. The main data-based findings are...

Firm data are accumulated on a yearly basis. In view of the linear relationship of firm age + foundation year = survey year, the fluctuations of firm data classified by age and period cannot be decomposed into age, period and cohort (foundation year) effects. Three decomposition methods...

The determinants of Japanese city population growth for the period 2000 to 2005 are empirically examined with particular attention to local public finance. The selection of one Fiscal Indicator (FI) from four alternatives -- ordinary balance ratio (OBR), ratio of outstanding borrowing (ROB) to...