We consider hourly readings of concentrations of ozone over Mexico City and propose a model for spatial as well as temporal interpolation and prediction. The model is based on a time-varying regression of the observed readings on air temperature. Such a regression requires interpolated values of...

This paper provides an optimal filtering methodology in discretely observed continuous-time jump-diffusion models. Although the filtering problem has received little attention, it is useful for estimating latent states, forecasting volatility and returns, computing model diagnostics such as...

We present a simulation-based method for solving discrete-time portfolio choice problems involving non-standard preferences, a large number of assets with arbitrary return distribution, and, most importantly, a large number of state variables with potentially path-dependent or non-stationary...

The paper develops a simulation-based approach to sequential parameter learning and filtering in general state space models. Our approach is based on approximating the target posterior by a mixture of fixed lag smoothing distributions. Parameter inference exploits a sufficient statistic...

Hierarchical models are extensively studied and widely used in statistics and many other scientific areas. They provide an effective tool for combining information from similar resources and achieving partial pooling of inference. Since the seminal work by James and Stein (1961) and Stein...

<title>Abstract</title> This paper examines the implementation of large, transformative change in the Medicaid offices in New York City to improve efficiency and consumer-friendliness. A bottom-up process was engaged to design and implement the needed changes from those who were most affected by the change....