We use a simple model of international lending to show that an emerging market borrower who might default can be shut out of international capital markets without warning. A modest haircut on obligations, for example, can shut down lending. Copyright © 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ©...

In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico and Southeast Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates. To improve our understanding of these events, researchers have undertaken new theoretical and empirical work. In this paper, we...

Should monetary policy react to stock prices? The answer depends on whether stock prices are good predictors of future economic activity. Using long annual time-series data for the G-7 countries, data going back over 150 years for some countries, we find that stock prices do not systematically...

Since the onset of the global financial crisis, China and the U.S. have reduced their current-account imbalances as a share of GDP to less than half their pre-crisis levels. For China, the reduction in its current-account surplus post-crisis suggests a structural change. Panel regressions for a...

This paper explores econometric and theoretical interpretations for the relatively high demand for international reserves by countries in the Far East and the relatively low demand by some other developing countries. Using a sample of about 125 developing countries, we show that reserve holdings...

We extend the literature on the demand for money by relaxing the assumption of a constant rate of consumption. Although total consumption is still fixed over the period, agents can choose more than one rate of consumption and cash depletion in the period to minimize the cost of money management....

As a share of GDP, the U.S. Federal debt held by the public exceeds 50 percent in FY2009, the highest debt ratio since 1955. Projections indicate the debt ratio may be in the 70- 100 percent range within ten years. In many respects, the temptation to inflate away some of this debt burden is...

Projections indicate the US Federal debt held by the public may exceed 70–100% of GDP within 10years. In many respects, the temptation to inflate away some of this debt burden is similar to that at the end of World War II. In 1946, the debt ratio was 108.6%. Inflation reduced this ratio by...