We argue that although UK monetary policy can be described using a Taylor rule in 1992- 2007, this rule fails during the recent financial crisis. We interpret this as reflecting a change in policymakers’ preferences to give priority to stabilising the financial system. Developing a model of...

The “sub-prime” crisis, which led to major turbulence in global financial markets beginning in mid-2007, has posed major challenges for monetary policymakers. We analyze the impact on monetary policy of the widening differential between policy rates and the three-month LIBOR rate, the...

Evaluation of quantitative easing (QE) is difficult as it is only used in response to severe and unusual economic difficulties. Despite this, we argue that two main conclusions can be drawn from a sceptical reading of the evidence. First, large-scale asset purchases reduce government bond rates,...

This paper estimates a variety of models of inflation using quarterly data for the UK between 1965 and 2001. We find strong evidence that the persistence of inflation is nonlinear and that inflation adjusted more rapidly in periods of macroeconomic stress such as the mid-1970s, the early 1980s...

This paper provides empirical evidence on the response of monetary policymakers to uncertainty. Using data for the UK since the introduction of inflation targets in October 1992, we find that the impact of inflation on interest rates is lower when inflation is more uncertain and is larger when...

"This article analyzes the impact of uncertainty about the true state of the economy on monetary policy rules in the United States since the early 1980s. Extending the Taylor rule to allow for this type of uncertainty, we find evidence that the predictions of the theoretical literature on...

This paper estimates a simple structural model of monetary policy in the UK focusing on the policy of inflation targeting introduced in 1992. We find that: (i) the adoption of inflation targeting led to significant changes in monetary policy; (ii) post-1992 monetary policy is asymmetric as...

Although policymakers and commentators have repeatedly stressed the impact of uncertainty about the true state of the economy on the setting of interest rates, the academic literature has largely ignored this issue. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of how uncertainty about the true...

We present empirical evidence that the marked rise in liquidity in 2001-2007 was due to large and persistent current account deficits and loose monetary policy. If this increase in liquidity was a pre-condition for the financial crisis that began in July 2007, we can conclude that loose monetary...

We argue that although UK monetary policy can be described using a Taylor rule in 1992-2007, this rule fails during the recent financial crisis. We interpret this as reflecting a change in policymakers’ preferences to give priority to stabilising the financial system. Developing a model of...