We revisit the forward premium puzzle in the interwar period and find that, as the deviation from covered interest rate parity increases, the coefficient on the forward premium in the standard Fama regression tends towards zero.

Hegwood and Papell (2002) conclude on the basis of analysis in a linear framework that long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) does not hold for 16 real exchange rate series, which were analyzed in Diebold, Husted, and Rush (1991) for the period 1792–1913 under the Gold Standard. Rather, PPP...

Nonlinear models of deviations from PPP have recently provided an important, theoretically well motivated, contribution to the PPP puzzle. Most of these studies use temporally aggregated data to empirically estimate the nonlinear models. As noted by Taylor (2001), if the true DGP is nonlinear,...

A stylized fact of US inflation dynamics is one of extreme persistence and possible unit root behavior. If so, the implications for macroeconomics and monetary policy are somewhat unpalatable. Our econometric analysis proposes a parsimonious representation of the inflation process, the nonlinear...

This paper re-examines the empirical modeling of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) deviations in the presence of commodity market frictions. First, we show that a specific type of smooth transition models can closely approximate the functional form of the theoretical adjustment mechanism derived by...

A new test for nonlinear causality and also nonparametric procedures suggest significant nonlinearity in the implementation of the Taylor rule by the Bank of Korea (BOK). In particular, the response to the output gap appears nonlinear.

We analyze the nonlinear behavior of the information content in the spread for future real economic activity. The spread linearly predicts one year ahead real growth in nine industrial production sectors of the US and four of the UK over the last forty years. However, recent investigations on...