In this we specify and jointly estimate supply, demand and price equations for four aggregate commodity groups: food, beverages, agricultural raw materials and metals. This simple structural model allows us, for each group of commodities, to incorporate stock data for the first time, and to...

This paper analyzes a model in which different rational individuals vote over the composition and time profile of public spending. Potential disagreement between current and future majorities generates instability in the social choice function that aggregates individual preferences. In...

The Paper finds empirical evidence on the ripple effect of sunspots on the interwar German economy. It identifies a sequence of negative shocks to expectations for the 1927-32 period. The artificial economy predicts the 1928-32 depression and a long boom from 1933 onwards. Overall, a tangible...

We analyse postwar Dutch migration to New Zealand. We document that history, reflect on analytical and econometric modelling and then combine a sample of Dutch migrants in New Zealand with a representative sample of Dutch in The Netherlands to estimate wage equations simultaneously with the...

The stumbling-block argument asserts that regionalism hinders MFN tariff cutting. If this was of first-order importance over previous decades, we should see a negative relationship between the level of MFN and preferential tariffs, i.e. MFN and PTA tariffs should be substitutes. Using tariff...

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual time series data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. We show...

In this Paper we show that the main empirical findings about firm diversification and performance are actually consistent with the optimal behavior of a firm that maximizes shareholder value. In our model, diversification allows a firm to explore better productive opportunities while taking...

The privatization process in Eastern Europe is not irreversible. Future governments may want to expropriate successful private firms by increasing taxation or by renationalizing them in order to subsidize unsuccessful firms. The paper uses a simple median voter model to predict the policy of...

The dynamics of self-confidence are modelled in an environment where rational individuals optimally choose education and occupations with the aim to acquire productive skills while learning about ability. It is shown how the presence of uninformative options can trap individuals below their...

In this article, I study the effect of worker heterogeneities on wages and unemployment within the context of a directed search model. A worker's productivity in a given firm depends both on their type and on a worker-firm specific component. Firms advertise unconditional wage offers, and hire...