, however, that a specific type of overconfidence, i.e. “miscalibration,” captures the underlying trait. We challenge this …Overconfidence is used to explain various instances of detrimental decision making. In behavioral economic and finance …. Empirical tests of these models often fail to find evidence for the predicted effects of overconfidence. These studies assume …

We investigate the theoretically proposed link between judgmental overconfidence and trading activity. In addition to … applying classical measures of miscalibration, we introduce a measure to capture misperception of signal reliability, which is … the relevant bias in the theoretical overconfidence literature. We relate the obtained overconfidence measures to trading …

We investigate the theoretically proposed link between judgmental overconfidence and trading activity. In addition to … applying classical measures of miscalibration, we introduce a measure to capture misperception of signal reliability, which is … the relevant bias in the theoretical overconfidence literature. We relate the obtained overconfidence measures to trading …

Overconfidence in one's relative performance within a group is a wide-spread phenomenon. Similar to individual (or … within-group) overconfidence, it was also shown that individuals are, on average, overconfident about the performance of … their group relative to other groups. We hypothesize that this between-group overconfidence should mitigate within …

’, estimating that it under-represents their score by 13%. However, they exhibit no such overconfidence in non-ego-relevant beliefs … ‘unlucky feeling’ is largely due to overconfident priors, with biased updating driving overconfidence only among the … than beliefs about a particular performance, contributing to the persistence of overconfidence. …

the relative standing of their group among other groups. On average, individuals exhibit overconfidence bias in both types …, the salience of between-group judgments should mitigate within-group overconfidence. Our second hypothesis is that within …-group overconfidence is reduced in the presence of group identity. Using a 2×2 between-subject design, we test, and find strong support for …

We investigate the influence of overconfidence and risk aversion on individual financial decision making in the … their pre-experimental overconfidence scores, were assigned to the two types of markets: least overconfident subjects formed … trading activity were overconfidence dependent only for female participants. Mistakes in price forecasting, that are …

Miscalibration can be defined as the fact that people think that their knowledge is more precise than it actually is …. In a typical miscalibration experiment, subjects are asked to provide subjective confidence intervals. A very robust … fall inside the 90% intervals provided. As miscalibration is linked with bad results on a experimental financial market …

salient perturbations, we propose a strategic foundation of overconfidence. Since overconfident statements are used in …