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countries, we find remarkable differences in forecast accuracy, and show that they are partly related to geography and … involving multiple central banking traditions. How does this heterogeneity affect the ability of economic agents to understand … banking in the past. In large part this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533521
financial market volatility after FOMC meetings. Finally, Fed communication may exert an influence on forecast accuracy. JEL …The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in forecast accuracy among Fed watchers. Based on a … novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005530863
communication is reduced during the financial crisis. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011041671
statements. We also show state dependence in the average stock returns on days of scheduled FOMC meetings and in the impact of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010875053
The objective of the paper is to investigate whether the stock price reactions of commercial banks to monetary policy actions are dependent on the state of the economy. The results indicate that monetary policy actions have asymmetric effects on the returns of commercial banks across different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010937150
Since 2007, the European Central Bank responded decisively to the challenges posed by the global financial crisis, reducing key policy interest rates to unprecedented low levels and intervening with non-standard policy measures (i.e., monetary easing and liquidity provision). This paper aims to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011209850
Learning market participants’ policy rate expectations is a major issue for central banks. The underlying reason for this is that the interest rate expectations of market participants may themselves contain information on market participants’ perceptions of the economic prospects, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528438
This paper attempts to discern from financial market data the impact of greater monetary policy transparency over the period since the late 1980s. We examine whether interest rate variability has changed, the degree to which financial markets anticipate policy moves and movements in the yield...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005423616
This article examines the magnitude of stock market reactions to European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy announcements. Since the introduction of the ECB, declining absolute abnormal returns have been compatible with the theory that stock markets learn from ECB monetary policy. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678835
We use firm-level data to reexamine the issue of possibly different impacts of “informative” and “uninformative” FOMC … monetary shocks based on the informative FOMC statements; there is little evidence to show that stock returns respond to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011048245