We show how cubic smoothing splines fitted to univariate time series data can be used to obtain local linear forecasts. Our approach is based on a stochastic state space model which allows the use of a likelihood approach for estimating the smoothing parameter, and which enables easy...

This paper investigates the statistical properties of the Kalman filter for state space models including integrated time series. In particular, we derive the full asymptotics of maximum likelihood estimation for some prototypical class of such models, i.e., the models with a single latent common...

This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and...

This paper investigates convergence and dynamic effects of human and physical capital on growth, in WAEMU countries. Using recently developed models for panel data and a growth accounting model, the study finds that growth is largely explained by changes in literacy rates and factor...

This paper provides a selective overview of nonlinear exchange rate models recently proposed in the literature and assesses their contribution to understanding exchange rate behavior. Two key questions are examined. The first question is whether nonlinear autoregressive models of real exchange...