In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This...

Under normality, the Bayesian estimation problem, the best linear unbiased estimation problem, and the restricted least-squares problem are all equivalent. As a result we need not compute pseudo-inverses and other complicated functions, which will be impossible for large sparse systems. Instead,...

The exact finite sample behavior is investigated on the bias of multiperiod leastsquares forecasts in the normal autoregressive model <italic>y</italic><italic>null</italic> = α + β<italic>y</italic>_null + <italic>u</italic><italic>null</italic>. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for the existence of the bias and an expression is presented which we use to obtain...

Cheating is a serious problem in many countries. The cheater gets higher marks than deserved, thus reducing the efficiency of a country’s educational system. In this study, the authors did not ask if and how often the student had cheated, but rather what the student’s opinion was...

We consider the estimation of the unknown mean "&eegr;" of a univariate normal distribution N("&eegr;", 1) given a single observation "x". We wish to obtain an estimator which is admissible and has good risk (and regret) properties. We first argue that the "usual" estimator "t" ("x") &equals; "x" is not...

The Snaer program calculates the posterior mean and variance of variables on some of which we have data (with precisions), on some we have prior information (with precisions), and on some prior indicator ratios (with precisions) are available. The variables must satisfy a number of exact...