In complete markets no arbitrage opportunity implies deterministic relationships between the prices of derivative assets. These actuarial relations are incompatible with the available data and with statistical inference. The aim of this paper is to reconcile risk neutral valuation and...

We consider a quadratic stochastic intensity model with a Gaussian autoregressive factor, derive explicit formulas for predictive mortality tables and recursive updating formulas are also provided. We also explain how to use appropriately the Kalman filter to estimate the parameters of the model...

By introducing a structure of the balance sheets of the banks, which takes into account their bilateral exposures in terms of stocks or lendings, we get a structural model for default analysis. This model allows distinguishing the exogenous and endogenous default dependence. We prove the...