This paper develops a new test of orthogonality based on a zero restriction on the covariance between the dependent variable and the predictor. The test provides a useful alternative to regression-based tests when conditioning variables have roots close or equal to unity. In this case standard...

This paper develops a new covariance-based test of orthogonality that may be attractive when regressors have roots close or equal to unity. In this case standard regression-based orthogonality tests can suffer from (i) size distortions and (ii) uncertainty regarding the appropriate model in...

Persistent regressors pose a common problem in predictive regressions. Tests of the forward rate unbiased hypothesis (FRUH) constitute a prime example. Standard regression tests that strongly reject FRUH have been questioned on the grounds of potential long-memory in the forward premium....

The observed persistence common in economic time series may arise from a variety of models that are not always distinguished with confidence in practice, yet play an important role in model specification and second stage inference procedures. Previous literature has introduced causality tests...

We propose a modified version of the nonparametric level crossing random walk test, in which the crossing level is determined locally. This modification results in a test that is robust to unknown multiple structural breaks in the level and slope of the trend function under both the null and...

Recent literature has questioned statistical inference in predictive regressi on with persistent regressors, suggesting a possible explanation for puzzles suc h as the forward premium anomaly. We therefore revisit this puzzle using three a lternative econometric methods known to provide reliable...

This paper develops a new covariance-based test of orthogonality that may beattractive when regressors have roots close or equal to unity. In this case standard regression-based orthogonality tests can suffer from (i) size distortions and (ii) uncertainty regarding the appropriate model in which...