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cause financial instability, such as housing or asset bubbles, overextended budgetary policies, or excessive public and … imbalances (bubbles) can occur in the medium-run. Considering several scenarios with both benevolent and idiosyncratic policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010615392
The world financial crisis, started by the collapse of the mortgage market in USA, gave rise to the deterioration of public finances in many European countries. The countries on which the impact was strong are Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (or PIIGS). Already during 2010, Greece and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010838280
This paper provides an early warning indicator for bubbles in financial markets. The indicator is based on traditional … consensus bubbles and gives warning signals well ahead of the crash, in most cases as early as 12 months ahead. The indicator … also signals most of the 'negative bubbles' before their turning points. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010611666
conventional unit root tests in modified forms can be used to construct early warning indicators for bubbles in financial markets … 1871, they are able to signal most of the consensus bubbles, defined as stock market booms for example by the IMF, and they … bubbles from the data. Finally, these early warning indicators are applied to data for several housing markets. In most of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010818810
In the current framework outlined by Eurozone crisis effects, by the high level of debt service starting next year and by the Romanian banking system outlook, our country needs actions and solutions at national level, resorting firstly to domestic resources and to our intellectual ability,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010965588
These notes examine the international crisis by analyzing it through Latin American lenses. The exercise consists in interpreting some key facts of the current global crisis in the light of what we know about volatility, crisis and stabilization policies in Latin America. The exercise has an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849657
Economic policy usually faces a number of risks and uncertainties, as a byproduct of the changing nature of signals, the economic structure, the interaction of aggregate variables, the mutations in the behavior of economic agents and their reaction to policy decisions. It is generally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849673
This paper analyses the relationship between financial stress indicator variables and monetary policy in South Africa with emphasis on how robust these variables are related to the monetary policy interest rate. The financial stress indicator variables comprise a set of variables from the main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010888681
La crisi dell’Eurozona è ormai certificata dalla sua performance estremamente deludente in seguito allo shock esterno provocato dalla crisi dei subprime. La richiesta di un ridisegno delle regole è unanime, e in parte già accolta dalle stesse istituzioni europee. La diagnosi sulle cause...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010908116
We study information acquisition and dynamic withdrawal decisions when a spreading rumor exposes a solvent bank to a run. Uncertainty about the bank's liquidity and potential failure motivates depositors who hear the rumor to acquire additional noisy signals. Depositors with less informative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010951353