We examine 330,857 trades of prediction market contracts, the values of which are based on against-the-spread outcomes of NFL games, and find the presence of a significant reverse favourite-longshot bias. Surprisingly, the timing of this bias is identical to that observed in traditional...

In this paper we examine the price movements of contracts that represent bets on NBA games and find that the disposition effect causes significant deviations between contract prices and values. The contracts under examination are listed on Tradesports, a prediction market which provides an ideal...

We examine the effects of variations in player compensation on NFL franchise performance from 1994 to 2004. Evidence shows that team success depends significantly upon both the actual and perceived fairness of pay distribution. Specifically, proficiency relative to that of competitors is high...

We examine deviations between the prices and values of binary options listed on Tradesports.com, an online prediction market. Our analysis shows that NFL sides contracts are overpriced on average, indicating that this market may be characterized by a shortage of sellers. We also find that...

We examine the value of expert picks published by SmartMoney, a popular investment periodical. Most can be described as 'hot' stocks - those that have experienced run-ups in price before publication. However, these stocks subsequently underperform the market by 0.45% per month in the 6-month...

Betting market odds for Major League Baseball are used to examine the level of uncertainty of outcome, an ex-ante form of competitive balance. The efficient markets hypothesis cannot be rejected for the years 1990-2006 in Major League Baseball. Therefore, the odds provide an ex-ante measure of...

We test whether corruption is widespread in NCAA basketball by examining scoring patterns in games involving suspected point shavers. If conspiracy occurs frequently, then we should find that strong favorites score fewer points and/or allow more points than expected. However, findings reveal...

I examine outcome predictability in the National Football League totals betting market using data from the 1984 through 2004 seasons. Results suggest that while weather is an important determinant of scoring, the market does not accurately incorporate the effects of adverse conditions into...

This study examines the pre-game and within-game price movements of contracts listed on Tradesports to determine whether relevant information is quickly and accurately embedded into asset prices. Each contract represents a totals (over/under) bet on an NFL game. In traditional casino-style...