This paper presents a new model of probabilistic binary choice under risk. In this model, a decision maker always satisfies first-order stochastic dominance. If neither lottery stochastically dominates the other alternative, a decision maker chooses in a probabilistic manner. The proposed model...

The mean-variance approach is an influential theory of decision under risk proposed by Markowitz (Markowitz, H. 1952. Portfolio selection. J. Finance 7(1) 77-91). The mean-variance approach implies violations of first-order stochastic dominance not commonly observed in the data. This paper...

Empirical research often requires a method how to convert a deterministic economic theory into an econometric model. A popular method is to add a random error term on the utility scale. This method, however, violates stochastic dominance. A modification of this method is proposed to avoid...

The results of a new experimental study reveal highly systematic violations of expected utility theory. The pattern of these violations is exactly the opposite of the classical common ratio effect discovered by Allais (1953). Two recent decision theories— stochastic expected utility theory...

This paper investigates how subjects determine minimum selling prices for lotteries. We design an experiment where subjects have at every moment an incentive to state their minimum selling price and to adjust the price if they believe that the price that they stated initially was not optimal. We...

In imperfectly discriminating contests the contestants contribute effort to win a prize but the highest contributed effort does not necessarily secure a win. The contest success function (CSF) is the technology that translates an individual's effort into his or her probability of winning. This...

This note presents an algorithm that extends a binary choice model to choice among multiple alternatives. Both neoclassical microeconomic theory and Luce choice model are consistent with the proposed algorithm. The algorithm is compatible with several empirical findings (asymmetric dominance and...

This note presents an algorithm that extends a binary choice model to choice among multiple alternatives. Both neoclassical microeconomic theory and Luce choice model are consistent with the proposed algorithm. The algorithm is compatible with several empirical findings (asymmetric dominance and...

Risk aversion is traditionally defined in the context of lotteries over monetary payoffs. This paper extends the notion of risk aversion to a more general setup where outcomes (consequences) may not be measurable in monetary terms and people may have fuzzy preferences over lotteries, i.e. they...

This paper analyzes individual decision making under risk. It is assumed that an individual does not have a preference relation on the set of risky lotteries. Instead, an individual possesses a probability measure that captures the likelihood of one lottery being chosen over the other. Choice...