The recent financial crisis has spread to markets worldwide. The correlation of evolutions registered by international capital markets is one of the effects of globalization. The speed at which problems on the American financial markets extended globally, starting with 2007, has reminded that...

The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition are uncertain. Drawing on the evidence in Alesina and Ardagna (2010), we emphasize whether or not the fiscal consolidation is driven by tax rises or expenditure cuts. We find that the...

Despite being theoretically appealing, the standard q-theory of investment performs very poorly in empirical work. This paper extends the q-theory to include the possibility that costs associated with the risk of insolvency affect the firm's investment decisions. Using aggregate data for the UK...

The four papers which follow were written for a conference organised by the National Institute on 24 February. The papers draw on some of the major developments in macroeconomic research and policy appraisal at the Institute over the last two or three years. Particular emphasis is placed on the...

New trade theory suggests that improvements in the variety and quality of products may be as important as price competitiveness as an explanation of trade flows. This paper tests this proposition for export volumes for the G7 using relative cumulated investment as a proxy for innovation....

The Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) method of calculating an equilibrium real exchange rate is the most widely used alternative to PPP. This paper presents the first comprehensive historical test of FEER calculations for six major economies, using estimates for the last twenty...

The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition - either tax- or spending-based - are uncertain. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt, and...

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis assume that policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow policy to be described by various forms of optimal policy - commitment, discretion and quasi-commitment. We find that, even after allowing for Markov...